The Future of Urban Mobility

The auto industry is facing tremendous demand due to global population growth, increasing affluence in the emerging markets and the universal aspiration for personal mobility. A steady rise in vehicle sales, especially in emerging markets, is expected to continue over the next several decades. By 2030, we expect the world's more than eight billion people to operate one billion vehicles. By 2050, the world's population is expected to top nine billion people. Over two-thirds of these people will live in cities, many of which already experience traffic congestion and poor air quality.

The Challenges of Growing Demand

Clearly, this exponential increase in demand creates significant challenges with respect to energy, the environment, safety, congestion and land use. Today, people in cities spend approximately 5.6 years of their lives in traffic. Seventy percent of car owners have trouble finding parking at least once per day, and, under congested conditions, up to 30 percent of fuel is consumed looking for a parking spot or waiting in traffic. Additionally, more than 50 million people are injured in traffic accidents each year.

As we contemplate solutions, we increasingly question how closely the vehicles of today are suited to the needs of tomorrow. Today's average car weighs at least 20 times more than its occupant, relies for the most part upon a single energy source — petroleum — and releases most of its energy as heat. Though the automotive industry has made marked improvements in emissions reduction, fuel economy, safety and affordability in recent decades, a substantial degree of cost, energy, mass and space inefficiency still remains in the design of today's automobile. As the world's cities continue to grow and the automobile enters its second century, new thinking is required — thinking that we believe will lead to the reinvention of personal mobility as we know it today.

A New Vision

Fortunately, the convergence of an array of new technologies is making it possible for the first time to form an entirely new vision of how the automotive world could evolve. This vision foresees a time when vehicles could be:

• Powered increasingly by electricity that is ultimately from a low-cost, renewable energy source.
• Operated with high efficiency and zero tailpipe emissions.
• Driven autonomously to virtually eliminate crashes.
• Routed to eliminate congestion.
• Priced for every budget.
• Sized to match a specific purpose.

Electric-drive vehicles have the advantage of producing zero tailpipe emissions and opening up an array of domestically produced energy sources, many of which can be renewable. Electric vehicles also support a diversity of efficient energy-generation and storage options, including lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. Powered by these options, electric vehicles can be recharged in practical, everyday places — homes, commercial garages or street spaces equipped with charging facilities.

Autonomous driving technology, enabled by network connectivity, could further increase energy efficiency by dramatically improving traffic flow. Connected vehicles have the capacity to move simultaneously through intersections as a unit, much like a flock of birds, with uniform speed and direction, yet constant separation, and the ability to break off from the group at any time. Traffic flow is thereby optimized so that average speeds are increased and travel times decreased. Since a large percentage of fuel is wasted in searching for parking, autonomous, self-parking vehicles also could have a substantial positive effect on reducing energy use, as well as congestion and door-to-door travel time.